REDES SOCIAIS

22°C

Analistas do mercado elevam para 7,89% estimativa para a inflação em 2022

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O mercado financeiro elevou de 7,65% para 7,89% a estimativa para a inflação neste ano. Foi a 16ª alta seguida no indicador.

A informação consta do relatório “Focus”, divulgado nesta segunda-feira (2) pelo Banco Central (BC). Os dados foram colhidos na semana passada, em pesquisa com mais de 100 instituições financeiras.

LEIA TAMBÉM:

Inflação
Expectativa do mercado para o IPCA de 2022

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Fonte: Banco Central

A projeção segue acima do teto do sistema de metas de inflação, que é de 5% em 2022. Definida pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN), a meta de inflação para este ano é de 3,5% e será considerada formalmente cumprida se oscilar entre 2% e 5%.

No entanto, desde o ano passado, os analistas do mercado já preveem a inflação em 2022 acima do teto da meta.

No fim de março, o BC admitiu que a meta de inflação deve ser superada novamente neste ano. A probabilidade de “estouro” da meta é de 88% a 97%, calculou a instituição.

Se confirmada a previsão do mercado para a inflação em 2022, será o segundo ano seguido de estouro da meta de inflação. Em 2021, o IPCA somou 10,06%, o maior desde 2015.

Combustíveis

As previsões de inflação começaram a subir com mais intensidade após o aumento nos combustíveis anunciado pela Petrobras em março, em meio à disparada do preço do petróleo ? reflexo da guerra na Ucrânia.


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Para alcançar a meta de inflação definida pelo CMN, o Banco Central eleva ou reduz a taxa básica de juros da economia, a Selic.

Neste momento, o BC já está calibrando a taxa Selic para atingir a meta de inflação do ano que vem, uma vez que as decisões sobre juros demoram de seis a 18 meses para terem impacto pleno na economia.

Para 2023, o mercado financeiro subiu de 4% para 4,10% a estimativa de inflação. Para o próximo ano, a meta foi fixada em 3,25%, e será considerada formalmente cumprida se oscilar entre 1,75% e 4,75%.

Produto Interno Bruto

Conforme os dados do Banco Central, o mercado financeiro elevou a previsão de crescimento do PIB deste ano de 0,65% para 0,70%.

O aumento aconteceu após a divulgação do crescimento do PIB do ano passado de 4,6% pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE).

O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país e serve para medir a evolução da economia.

Para 2023, o mercado manteve estável em 1% sua estimativa de alta do PIB.

Taxa de juros

Para a taxa básica de juros da economia, o mercado financeiro manteve em sua estimativa 13,25% ao ano no final de 2022.

Já para o fim de 2023, a expectativa do mercado para a taxa Selic subiu de 9% para 9,25% ao ano. Mesmo assim, o mercado financeiro segue estimando queda dos juros no ano que vem.

Outras estimativas

  • Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio no fim de 2022 permaneceu em R$ 5. Para o fim de 2023, avançou de R$ 5 para R$ 5,04 por dólar.
  • Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção em 2022 recuou de US$ 69,8 bilhões para US$ 69,5 bilhões de resultado positivo. Para o ano que vem, a estimativa dos especialistas do mercado ficou estável em US$ 60 bilhões de superávit.
  • Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano subiu de US$ 59 bilhões para US$ 60 bilhões. Para 2023, a estimativa permaneceu em US$ 67,3 bilhões de ingresso.

VÍDEOS: notícias de economia

Fonte G1 Brasília

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