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Boletim Focus: mercado eleva estimativa de inflação em 2024, 2025 e 2026, com estouro da meta neste ano

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Os analistas do mercado financeiro elevaram a estimativa para o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) de 4,62% para 4,64%. Foi a sétima alta consecutiva.

Com isso, a projeção segue acima do teto da meta de inflação para este ano, que é de 4,50%.

As expectativas, fruto de pesquisa com mais de 100 instituições financeiras na última semana, constam do relatório “Focus” divulgado nesta segunda-feira (18) pelo Banco Central (BC).

Estimativa do mercado financeiro para a inflação de 2024
Projeções para o IPCA, o índice oficial

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Fonte: Banco Central

  • A meta central de inflação é de 3% neste ano ? e será considerada formalmente cumprida se o índice oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5% neste ano.
  • Caso a meta de inflação não seja atingida, o BC terá de escrever e enviar uma carta pública ao ministro da Fazenda, Fernando Haddad, explicando os motivos.

A projeção do mercado de que a inflação ficará acima do teto da meta neste ano acontece após a divulgação do IPCA de setembro, que veio pressionado por questões climáticas, como a seca, que impactou a energia elétrica e os alimentos.

Além disso, segundo analistas, o aumento de gastos públicos é outro fator que tem pesado para o aumento das projeções de inflação.

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??Para 2025, a estimativa de inflação subiu de 4,10% para 4,12% na última semana.

??E, para 2026, a expectativa subiu de 3,65% para 3,70%.

  • Pelo sistema de metas, o BC tem de calibrar os juros para tentar manter a inflação dentro do intervalo existente.
  • Para isso, a instituição olha para frente, pois a Selic demora de seis a 18 meses para ter impacto pleno na economia.
  • Neste momento, por exemplo, o BC já está mirando na expectativa de inflação calculada em 12 meses até meados de 2026.

?Porque isso importa? Quanto maior a inflação, menor é o poder de compra das pessoas, principalmente das que recebem salários menores. Isso porque os preços dos produtos aumentam, sem que o salário acompanhe esse crescimento.

Produto Interno Bruto

Para o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em 2024, a projeção do mercado permaneceu estável em 3,10%.

  • O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país. O indicador serve para medir a evolução da economia.
  • Já para 2025, a previsão de alta do PIB do mercado financeiro ficou estável em 1,94%.

Taxa de juros

Os economistas do mercado financeiro continuaram prevendo aumento da taxa básica de juros da economia brasileira até o fim do ano.

  • Atualmente, a taxa Selic está em 11,25% ao ano, após dois aumentos.
  • Para o fechamento de 2024, a projeção do mercado para o juro básico da economia continuou em 11,75% ao ano, o que pressupõe uma nova elevação até o fim do ano.
  • Para o fim de 2025, o mercado financeiro elevou a projeção de 11,50% para 12% ao ano.
  • Com isso, os economistas deixaram de estimar corte e passaram a projetar alta de juros no próximo ano.

Outras estimativas

Veja abaixo outras estimativas do mercado financeiro, segundo o BC:

  • Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio para o fim de 2024 subiu de R$ 5,55 para R$ 5,60. Para o fim de 2025, a estimativa avançou de R$ 5,48 para R$ 5,50.
  • Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção recuou de US$ 77,6 bilhões para US$ 77 bilhões de superávit em 2024. Para 2025, a expectativa para o saldo positivo permaneceu em US$ 76,7 bilhões.
  • Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano caiu de US$ 72 bilhões para US$ 71,5 bilhões. Para 2025, a estimativa de ingresso recuou de US$ 74 bilhões para US$ 73,6 bilhões.

Fonte G1 Brasília

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