Os analistas do mercado financeiro elevaram a estimativa de inflação para este ano pela quarta semana seguida. A projeção passou de 4,12% para 4,2%.
A expectativa, fruto de pesquisa com mais de 100 instituições financeiras, consta do relatório “Focus” divulgado nesta segunda-feira (12) pelo Banco Central (BC).
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- Com isso, a expectativa dos analistas para a inflação de 2024 continua se distanciando da meta central de inflação e se aproximando do teto definido pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN).
- A meta central de inflação é de 3% neste ano, e será considerada formalmente cumprida se o índice oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5% neste ano.
Para 2025, a estimativa de inflação recuou de 3,98% para 3,97% na última semana. No próximo ano, a meta de inflação é de 3% e será considerada cumprida se oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5%.
Para definir a taxa básica de juros e tentar conter a alta dos preços, o BC já está mirando, neste momento, na meta do ano que vem, e também em 12 meses até meados de 2026.
Quanto maior a inflação, menor é o poder de compra das pessoas, principalmente das que recebem salários menores. Isso porque os preços dos produtos aumentam, sem que o salário acompanhe esse crescimento.
Produto Interno Bruto
Para o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em 2024, a projeção do mercado permaneceu inalterada em 2,20%.
- O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país. O indicador serve para medir a evolução da economia.
- Já para 2025, a previsão de alta do PIB do mercado financeiro ficou estável em 1,92%.
Taxa de juros
Os economistas do mercado financeiro mantiveram a estimativa para a taxa básica de juros da economia brasileira para o final deste ano.
- Atualmente, a taxa Selic está em 10,50% ao ano, após manutenção na semana passada pela segunda vez seguida.
- Para o fechamento de 2024, a projeção do mercado para o juro básico da economia continuou em 10,50% ao ano.
- Com isso, o mercado segue prevendo que não haverá mais alterações na taxa Selic no restante deste ano.
- Para o fim de 2025, o mercado financeiro manteve a estimativa estável em 9,75%.
- Isso quer dizer que os economistas continuam estimando corte dos juros ano que vem.
Outras estimativas
Veja abaixo outras estimativas do mercado financeiro, segundo o BC:
- Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio para o fim de 2024 ficou estável em R$ 5,30. Para o fim de 2025, a estimativa permaneceu em R$ 5,30.
- Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção subiu de US$ 82 bilhões para US$ 82,4 bilhões de superávit em 2024. Para 2025, a expectativa para o saldo positivo recuou de US$ 78 bilhões para US$ 77,2 bilhões.
- Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano avançou de US$ 69,6 bilhões para US$ 69,8 bilhões de ingresso. Para 2025, a estimativa de ingresso caiu de US$ 71,6 bilhões para US$ 71,2 bilhões.
Fonte G1 Brasília