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‘Boletim Focus’: mercado financeiro passa a estimar IPCA acima de 4,5% neste ano, com estouro da meta de inflação

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Os economistas do mercado financeiro elevaram a estimativa para o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) para um valor acima de 4,5%, que é o teto do sistema de metas de inflação em 2024.

Para este ano, a expectativa de inflação do mercado financeiro avançou pela quarta semana seguida, passando de 4,50% para 4,55%.

Essa é a primeira vez que o mercado financeiro estima que o IPCA fique acima do teto da meta em 2024. Se confirmado, será o primeiro estouro da meta desde 2022, quando a inflação somou 5,79%.

As expectativas, fruto de pesquisa com mais de 100 instituições financeiras na última semana, constam do relatório “Focus” divulgado nesta segunda-feira (28) pelo Banco Central (BC).

Estimativa do mercado financeiro para a inflação de 2024
Projeções para o IPCA, o índice oficial

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Fonte: Banco Central

  • A meta central de inflação é de 3% neste ano ? e será considerada formalmente cumprida se o índice oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5% neste ano.
  • Caso a meta de inflação não seja atingida, o BC terá de escrever e enviar uma carta pública ao ministro da Fazenda explicando os motivos.

A projeção do mercado de que a inflação ficará acima do teto da meta neste ano acontece após a divulgação do IPCA de setembro, que veio pressionado por questões climáticas, como a seca, que impactou a energia elétrica e os alimentos.

Para 2025, a estimativa de inflação subiu de 3,99% para 4% na última semana.

E, para 2026, a expectativa permaneceu em 3,60%.

  • Pelo sistema de metas, o BC tem de calibrar os juros para tentar manter a inflação dentro do intervalo existente.
  • Para isso, a instituição olha para frente, pois a Selic demora de seis a 18 meses para ter impacto pleno na economia.
  • Neste momento, por exemplo, o BC já está mirando, neste momento, na meta do ano que vem, e também em 12 meses até meados de 2026.
  • Quanto maior a inflação, menor é o poder de compra das pessoas, principalmente das que recebem salários menores. Isso porque os preços dos produtos aumentam, sem que o salário acompanhe esse crescimento.

Produto Interno Bruto

Para o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em 2024, a projeção do mercado subiu de 3,05% para 3,08%.

  • O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país. O indicador serve para medir a evolução da economia.
  • Já para 2025, a previsão de alta do PIB do mercado financeiro permaneceu em 1,93%.

Taxa de juros

Os economistas do mercado financeiro continuaram prevendo aumento da taxa básica de juros da economia brasileira até o fim do ano.

  • Atualmente, a taxa Selic está em 10,75% ao ano, após um aumento em meados de setembro.
  • Para o fechamento de 2024, a projeção do mercado para o juro básico da economia continuou em 11,75% ao ano, o que pressupõe novas elevações até o fim do ano.
  • Para o fim de 2025, o mercado financeiro manteve a estimativa em 11,25% ao ano.
  • Isso quer dizer que os economistas continuam estimando corte dos juros ano que vem.

Outras estimativas

Veja abaixo outras estimativas do mercado financeiro, segundo o BC:

  • Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio para o fim de 2024 subiu de R$ 5,42 para R$ 5,45. Para o fim de 2025, a estimativa permaneceu em R$ 5,40.
  • Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção permaneceu em US$ 78 bilhões de superávit em 2024. Para 2025, a expectativa para o saldo positivo avançou de US$ 76,1 bilhões para US$ 76,8 bilhões.
  • Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano ficou estável em US$ 72 bilhões. Para 2025, a estimativa de ingresso permaneceu em US$ 74 bilhões.

Fonte G1 Brasília

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