Os economistas do mercado financeiro passaram a projetar uma elevação maior da taxa básica de juros neste ano.
A expectativa, fruto de pesquisa com mais de 100 instituições financeiras na última semana, constam do relatório “Focus” divulgado nesta segunda-feira (30) pelo Banco Central (BC).
Atualmente, a Selic está em 10,75% ao ano, após o primeiro aumento do terceiro mandato de Lula. A alta foi de 0,25 ponto percentual no juro neste mês.
A previsão do mercado passou a ser de dois aumentos de 0,50 ponto percentual na taxa Selic nas reuniões de novembro e de dezembro deste ano.
- Até então, os analistas vinham estimando uma alta de 0,50 ponto em novembro e de 0,25 ponto em dezembro de 2024.
Se confirmada a projeção do mercado, a Selic avançará para 11,25% ao ano em novembro e para 11,75% ao ano em dezembro de 2024.
Para o fim de 2025, os analistas dos bancos elevaram sua projeção de 10,50% para 10,75% ao ano ao ano. Isso quer dizer que eles continuam estimando corte dos juros ano que vem, mas em menor intensidade.
Inflação
Os economistas do mercado mantiveram estável em 4,37% sua estimativa de inflação para 2024.
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- Com isso, a expectativa dos analistas para a inflação de 2024 continua acima da meta central de inflação e mais próxima do teto definido pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN).
- A meta central de inflação é de 3% neste ano ? e será considerada formalmente cumprida se o índice oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5% neste ano.
??Para 2025, a estimativa de inflação permaneceu em 3,97% na última semana. E, para 2026, a expectativa recuou de 3,62% para 3,60%.
- A partir de 2025, a meta de inflação é de 3% e será considerada cumprida se oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5%.
- Para definir a taxa básica de juros e tentar conter a alta dos preços, o BC já está mirando, neste momento, na meta do ano que vem, e também em 12 meses até meados de 2026.
?Quanto maior a inflação, menor é o poder de compra das pessoas, principalmente das que recebem salários menores. Isso porque os preços dos produtos aumentam, sem que o salário acompanhe esse crescimento.
Produto Interno Bruto
Para o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em 2024, a projeção do mercado ficou estável em 3%.
- O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país. O indicador serve para medir a evolução da economia.
- Já para 2025, a previsão de alta do PIB do mercado financeiro subiu de 1,90% para 1,92%.
Outras estimativas
Veja abaixo outras estimativas do mercado financeiro, segundo o BC:
- Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio para o fim de 2024 permaneceu em R$ 5,40. Para o fim de 2025, a estimativa continuou em R$ 5,35.
- Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção continuou em US$ 81 bilhões de superávit em 2024. Para 2025, a expectativa para o saldo positivo recuou de US$ 76,3 bilhões para US$ 76,2 bilhões.
- Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano permaneceu caiu de US$ 70,8 bilhões para US$ 70,5 bilhões de ingresso. Para 2025, a estimativa de ingresso ficou estável em US$ 73 bilhões.
Fonte G1 Brasília