Os economistas do mercado financeiro elevaram a projeção de crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) deste ano, ao mesmo tempo em que reduziram as expectativas de inflação para 2024 e 2025.
As informações constam no relatório “Focus”, divulgado nesta terça-feira (27) pelo Banco Central. O levantamento ouviu mais de 100 instituições financeiras, na semana passada, sobre as projeções para a economia.
O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país. O indicador serve para medir a evolução da economia.
Para este ano, a estimativa de crescimento da economia brasileira subiu de 1,68% para 1,75%.
Já para 2025, a previsão de alta do PIB do mercado financeiro ficou estável em 2%.
Inflação
Para o comportamento da inflação, os analistas da instituições financeiras baixaram a expectativa para 2024 ? que recuou de 3,82% para 3,80%.
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Na semana passada, o BC havia informado que a projeção estava em 3,81% para 2024. Nesta terça, o número da última semana foi revisado para 3,82%. Segundo a instituição, foi identificada uma “inconsistência” em uma revisão de rotina dos indicadores, que foi corrigida.
Com isso, a estimativa dos analistas para a inflação de 2024 se mantém abaixo do teto da meta definida pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN).
A meta central de inflação é de 3% neste ano, e será considerada formalmente cumprida se o índice oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5% neste ano.
- Especial g1: o que é inflação
- Entenda: como a inflação mexe no seu bolso
Para 2025, a estimativa de inflação caiu de 3,52% para 3,51% na última semana. No próximo ano, a meta de inflação é de 3% e será considerada cumprida se oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5%.
Para definir a taxa básica de juros e tentar conter a alta dos preços, o BC já está mirando, neste momento, na meta do ano que vem, e também em 12 meses até meados de 2025.
Quanto maior a inflação, menor é o poder de compra das pessoas, principalmente das que recebem salários menores. Isso porque os preços dos produtos aumentam, sem que o salário acompanhe esse crescimento.
Taxa de juros
Os economistas do mercado financeiro mantiveram as estimativas para a taxa básica de juros da economia brasileira para o final deste ano e de 2025.
- Atualmente, a taxa Selic está em 11,25% ao ano, após cinco reduções seguidas promovidas pelo Banco Central.
- Para o fechamento de 2024, a projeção do mercado para o juro básico da economia ficou estável em 9% ao ano.
- Para o fim de 2025, por sua vez, o mercado financeiro manteve a projeção estável em 8,5% ao ano.
Outras estimativas
Veja abaixo outras estimativas do mercado financeiro, segundo o BC:
- Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio para o fim de 2024 ficou estável em R$ 4,93. Para o fim de 2025, a estimativa continuou em R$ 5.
- Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção subiu de US$ 80 bilhões para US$ 81 bilhões de superávit em 2024. Para 2025, a expectativa para o saldo positivo avançou de US$ 70 bilhões para US$ 72 bilhões.
- Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano subiu de US$ 66,5 bilhões para US$ 67 bilhões de ingresso. Para 2025, a estimativa de ingresso permaneceu em US$ 75 bilhões.
Fonte G1 Brasília