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Boletim Focus: mercado vê inflação maior, PIB de 3% e aumento maior de juros em novembro

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Os economistas do mercado financeiro elevaram a estimativa de inflação para 2024 e 2025, e também subiram a expectativa de expansão da economia para 3% neste ano.

Além disso, passaram a projetar um aumento maior da taxa de juros, de 0,5 ponto percentual, em novembro deste ano.

As expectativas, fruto de pesquisa com mais de 100 instituições financeiras na última semana, constam do relatório “Focus” divulgado nesta segunda-feira (23) pelo BC.

Para este ano, a expectativa de inflação do mercado financeiro avançou pela décima semana seguida, passando de 4,35% para 4,37%.

Estimativa do mercado financeiro para a inflação de 2024
Projeções para o IPCA, o índice oficial

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Fonte: Banco Central

  • Com isso, a expectativa dos analistas para a inflação de 2024 continua se distanciando da meta central de inflação e se aproximando do teto definido pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN).
  • A meta central de inflação é de 3% neste ano ? e será considerada formalmente cumprida se o índice oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5% neste ano.

Para 2025, a estimativa de inflação subiu de 3,95% para 3,97% na última semana.

E, para 2026, a expectativa avançou de 3,61% para 3,62%.

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Produto Interno Bruto

Para o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em 2024, a projeção do mercado subiu de 2,96% para 3%.

A projeção subiu após a divulgação do PIB do segundo trimestre ? que registrou expansão de 1,4% contra os três meses anteriores e surpreendeu positivamente o mercado financeiro.

  • O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país. O indicador serve para medir a evolução da economia.
  • Já para 2025, a previsão de alta do PIB do mercado financeiro permaneceu em 1,90%.

Taxa de juros

Os economistas do mercado financeiro passaram a prever uma alta maior de juros em novembro, na próxima reunião do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom).

  • Atualmente, a Selic está em 10,75% ao ano, após o primeiro aumento do terceiro mandato de Lula. A alta foi de 0,25 ponto percentual no juro na última semana.
  • A previsão do mercado é de que o juro básico avance para 11,25% ao ano em novembro, uma alta de 0,5 ponto percentual. Ou seja, os analistas estimam que o BC vai acelerar o ritmo de alta dos juros em seu próximo encontro.
  • Para o fechamento de 2024, a projeção do mercado para o juro básico da economia avançou de 11,25% para 11,50% ao ano, o que pressupõe nova elevação em dezembro.
  • Para o fim de 2025, o mercado financeiro manteve a projeção em 10,5% ao ano.
  • Isso quer dizer que os economistas continuam estimando corte dos juros ano que vem.

Outras estimativas

Veja abaixo outras estimativas do mercado financeiro, segundo o BC:

  • Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio para o fim de 2024 permaneceu em R$ 5,40. Para o fim de 2025, a estimativa continuou em R$ 5,35.
  • Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção caiu de US$ 82,9 bilhões para US$ 81 bilhões de superávit em 2024. Para 2025, a expectativa para o saldo positivo recuou de US$ 77,7 bilhões para US$ 76,3 bilhões.
  • Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano permaneceu estável em US$ 70,8 bilhões de ingresso. Para 2025, a estimativa de ingresso caiu de US$ 73,6 bilhões para US$ 73 bilhões.

Fonte G1 Brasília

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