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Copom se reúne nesta quarta-feira; mercado financeiro prevê nova alta da Selic, para 13,75%

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O Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do Banco Central se reúne nesta quarta-feira (3) para definir a nova taxa básica de juros da economia, a taxa Selic.

A expectativa entre os analistas do mercado financeiro é que a Selic passe dos atuais 13,25% ao ano para 13,75% ao ano.

Se confirmado, este será o 12º aumento consecutivo na taxa de juros, que chegará ao maior patamar desde novembro de 2016, quando estava em 14% ao ano. A decisão será anunciada após as 18h.

Analistas dos bancos avaliam que, após esse aumento, a taxa Selic permanecerá neste nível até maio de 2023, quando começará a cair. A previsão é que a Selic termine o próximo ano em 10,5% ao ano.

A evolução da taxa Selic
Desde 2017, em % ao ano

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Fonte: Banco Central

Metas de inflação

Para definir o nível dos juros, o Banco Central se baseia no sistema de metas de inflação.

Quando a inflação está alta, o BC eleva a Selic. Quando as estimativas para a inflação estão em linha com as metas, o Banco Central reduz a Selic.

Em 2022, a meta central de inflação é de 3,5% e será oficialmente cumprida se o índice oscilar de 2% a 5%. O mercado financeiro e o BC, porém, já preveem a inflação de 7,15% em todo este ano. Se confirmado, será o segundo ano seguido de estouro da meta de inflação.

Neste momento, o BC já está ajustando a taxa Selic para tentar atingir a meta de inflação do ano que vem, uma vez que as decisões sobre juros demoram de seis a 18 meses para terem impacto pleno na economia.

Para 2023, a meta de inflação foi fixada 3,25%, e será considerada formalmente cumprida se oscilar entre 1,75% e 4,75%. Na semana passada, porém, o mercado estimou que a meta será novamente superada no próximo ano, com a inflação atingindo 5,33%.

A projeção de inflação do mercado para o próximo ano começou a subir com mais intensidade após o Congresso ter aprovado corte de impostos cobrados sobre itens essenciais, como combustíveis e energia elétrica, até o fim deste ano. Com o retorno dos tributos em 2023, essas medidas pressionam os preços no próximo ano.


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Cenário

O novo aumento de juros que deve ser adotado pelo Banco Central acontece em um cenário de desaceleração da inflação no país ? após a redução de tributos sobre combustíveis. Em julho, a prévia da inflação ficou em 0,13%, a menor variação do indicador desde junho de 2020.

Porém, também vem em um momento de alta das taxas de juros ao redor do mundo, justamente para conter as pressões inflacionárias decorrentes dos impactos da Covid-19 na produção e da guerra na Ucrânia nos combustíveis. Isso pode gerar alta no dólar no Brasil, com reflexos na inflação, e desaceleração da atividade global.

“Os riscos de recessão global aumentaram, o que contribui para diminuir pressões inflacionárias. Porém, a inflação de serviços mantém-se em níveis elevados ? sem qualquer sinal de acomodação ? e o mercado de trabalho vêm se mostrando bem aquecido”, avaliou a XP, em comunicado assinado por pelos economistas Caio Megale e Tatiana Nogueira.

Mauricio Oreng, do Santander, observou que houve uma deterioração das expectativas de inflação nos últimos meses com a aprovação de medidas de estímulo fiscal pelo Legislativo com a proximidade das eleições, apelidadas de PEC Kamikaze. E avalia que, em um “contexto de incerteza maior do que o habitual”, o BC pode não se comprometer com o fim do ciclo de juros agora em agosto.

Consequências da alta dos juros

De acordo com especialistas, o aumento do juro básico da economia tem vários reflexos na economia, entre os quais:

Fonte G1 Brasília

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