REDES SOCIAIS

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Copom se reúne nesta quarta-feira; mercado prevê 10ª alta seguida da Selic, para 12,75%

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O Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do Banco Central se reúne nesta quarta-feira (4) para definir a taxa básica de juros da economia, a Selic.

A expectativa dos analistas do mercado financeiro é que a Selic seja elevada em um ponto percentual, passando dos atuais 11,75% para 12,75% ao ano.

Se confirmado, este será o décimo aumento seguido da Selic, o que levará a taxa ao maior patamar desde janeiro de 2017, quando estava em 13% ao ano. A decisão será anunciada após as 18h.

O novo aumento no juro básico da economia é esperado pelo mercado financeiro com base em indicações do próprio Banco Central. No encontro anterior do Copom, em março, o BC informou que promoveria nova alta de um ponto percentual.

A evolução da taxa Selic
Desde 2017, em % ao ano

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Fonte: Banco Central

Inflação em alta

O objetivo da alta no juro é tentar conter a escalada da inflação. Pressionado principalmente pelo aumento dos preços dos alimentos e dos combustíveis, o IPCA-15 ? considerado u prévia da inflação oficial do país ? ficou em 1,73% em abril. Em 12 meses, atingiu a marca dos 12%.

Com alta de 7,51%, a gasolina foi a principal responsável pela alta da inflação na prévia de abril. Houve altas acentuadas também do diesel, do etanol e do gás veicular, levando a alta dos transportes a 3,43% na prévia do mês.

Os números da inflação mostram que encher o carrinho do mercado também está mais difícil. Os preços dos alimentos e bebidas aumentaram 2,25% na prévia de abril, puxados por produtos consumidos dentro de casa.

No fim de março, o presidente do BC, Roberto Campos Neto, avaliou que a inflação brasileira deveria atingir seu pico no mês de abril, começando a desacelerar nos meses seguintes. Porém, ele já havia estimado anteriormente que a inflação começaria a ceder no fim de 2021, o que não aconteceu.


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Próximos passos

O mercado financeiro também está de olho nas sinalizações sobre a taxa Selic para os próximos meses.

No fim de março, o presidente do BC, Roberto Campos Neto, chegou a indicar que o aumento previsto para o mês de maio, para 12,75% ao ano, seria o último do atual ciclo de alta dos juros. Ou seja, sem novas elevações nos meses subsequentes.

Entretanto, em abril, o presidente do BC admitiu que a inflação havia surpreendido e que, por isso, a instituição iria analisar mais profundamente os últimos índices de inflação. Deste modo, deu a entender que novos aumentos são possíveis.

A expectativa do mercado financeiro, em pesquisa realizada na semana passada pelo BC com mais de 100 bancos, é de que a taxa Selic terá novo aumento em junho, para 13,25% ao ano. E que terminará 2022 neste patamar.

Sistema de metas

Para calibrar o nível dos juros, o sistema adotado é o de metas de inflação. Quando a inflação está alta, o BC eleva a Selic. Quando as estimativas para a inflação estão em linha com as metas, o Banco Central reduz a Selic.

Em 2022, a meta central de inflação é de 3,5% e será oficialmente cumprida se o índice oscilar de 2% a 5%. O mercado financeiro e o BC, porém, já preveem a inflação de quase 8% em todo este ano. Se confirmado, será o segundo ano seguido de estouro da meta de inflação.

Neste momento, porém, o BC já está ajustando a taxa Selic para atingir a meta de inflação do ano que vem, uma vez que as decisões sobre juros demoram de seis a 18 meses para terem impacto pleno na economia.

Para 2023, a meta de inflação foi fixada 3,25%, e será considerada formalmente cumprida se oscilar entre 1,75% e 4,75%.

Na semana passada, o mercado financeiro estimou que a inflação oficial somará 4,10%. A previsão, portanto, está acima da meta central, mas ainda dentro do intervalo de tolerância.

Consequências da alta dos juros

De acordo com economistas, o aumento do juro básico da economia, para conter a inflação, tem vários reflexos na economia. Entre eles, estão:

Fonte G1 Brasília

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