O Ministério da Fazenda não acredita mais em desaceleração no ritmo de crescimento da economia brasileira neste ano de 2026, apesar dos juros altos ? a taxa Selic está em 15% ao ano, o maior nível em 20 anos.
A estimativa é de 2,3% de crescimento para o PIB e nova queda da inflação (veja números completos abaixo).
As informações constam no Boletim Macrofiscal divulgado nesta sexta-feira (6) pela Secretaria de Política Econômica da pasta, que traz projeções para indicadores econômicos.
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Números 2025
A projeção para o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) de 2025 ? cujo resultado oficial ainda não foi divulgado pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) ? passou de 2,2%, em novembro do ano passado, para 2,3% no documento divulgado nesta sexta.
O mercado financeiro, por sua vez, projeta uma alta de 2,27% para 2025.
- Se confirmado esse resultado, haverá uma forte desaceleração da economia comparativamente a 2024, que apresentou crescimento de 3,4% na ocasião.
- Também será a menor taxa de crescimento desde 2020, em meio à pandemia da Covid-19, quando houve uma retração de 3,3% no Produto Interno Bruto.
Números 2026
??O Ministério da Fazenda revisou de 2,4% para 2,3% sua expectativa de crescimento da economia em 2026, ano marcado por eleições presidenciais.
??Com isso, prevê estabilidade no ritmo de expansão da economia de 2025 para 2026, ao contrário do mercado financeiro ? que projeta uma alta menor para o PIB de 2026: de 1,80%.
“Por setor produtivo, espera-se desaceleração da agropecuária, compensada por maior expansão da indústria e dos serviços”, diz a Secretaria de Política Econômica, no Boletim Macrofiscal.
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Queda da inflação
O governo também projeta uma nova queda da inflação neste ano. A expectativa é que o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA), a inflação oficial do país, recue para 3,6% (a mesma projeção de novembro do ano passado).
“A inflação de bens industriais e serviços deve continuar a cair, repercutindo o excesso de oferta de bens e os efeitos defasados do enfraquecimento do dólar e da política monetária [alta de juros]”, informou o Ministério da Fazenda.
Fonte G1 Brasília
