Os analistas do mercado financeiro elevaram a estimativa de inflação novamente para este ano e passaram a projetar um crescimento maior da economia em 2024.
As informações constam do relatório “Focus”, divulgado nesta segunda-feira (10) pelo Banco Central. O levantamento ouviu mais de 100 instituições financeiras, na semana passada, sobre as projeções para a economia.
Para este ano, os analistas dos bancos elevaram a expectativa de inflação de 3,88% para 3,90%. Esse foi o quinto aumento seguido no indicador.
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- Com isso, a expectativa dos analistas para a inflação de 2024 se mantém acima da meta central de inflação, mas abaixo do teto definido pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN).
- A meta central de inflação é de 3% neste ano, e será considerada formalmente cumprida se o índice oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5% neste ano.
Para 2025, a estimativa de inflação avançou de 3,77% para 3,78% na última semana. No próximo ano, a meta de inflação é de 3% e será considerada cumprida se oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5%.
Para definir a taxa básica de juros e tentar conter a alta dos preços, o BC já está mirando, neste momento, na meta do ano que vem, e também em 12 meses até meados de 2025.
Quanto maior a inflação, menor é o poder de compra das pessoas, principalmente das que recebem salários menores. Isso porque os preços dos produtos aumentam, sem que o salário acompanhe esse crescimento.
Produto Interno Bruto
Para o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em 2024, a expectativa do mercado subiu de 2,05% para 2,09% na semana passada.
- O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país. O indicador serve para medir a evolução da economia.
- O crescimento na projeção dos analistas foi registrada após a divulgação do resultado do PIB do primeiro trimestre deste ano ? que teve alta de 0,8%.
- Já para 2025, a previsão de alta do PIB do mercado financeiro continuou em 2%.
Taxa de juros
Os economistas do mercado financeiro mantiveram estável a estimativa para a taxa básica de juros da economia brasileira para o final deste ano.
- Atualmente, a taxa Selic está em 10,50% ao ano, após sete reduções seguidas promovidas pelo Banco Central.
- Para o fechamento de 2024, a projeção do mercado para o juro básico da economia permaneceu em 10,25% ao ano.
- Para o fim de 2025, por sua vez, o mercado financeiro elevou sua expectativa de 9,18% para 9,25% ao ano.
Outras estimativas
Veja abaixo outras estimativas do mercado financeiro, segundo o BC:
- Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio para o fim de 2024 permaneceu em R$ 5,05. Para o fim de 2025, a estimativa avançou de R$ 5,05 para R$ 5,09.
- Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção subiu de US$ 82,3 bilhões para US$ 82,5 bilhões de superávit em 2024. Para 2025, a expectativa para o saldo positivo permaneceu em US$ 78 bilhões.
- Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano continuou em US$ 70 bilhões de ingresso. Para 2025, a estimativa de ingresso recuou de US$ 73 bilhões para US$ 72,5 bilhões.
Fonte G1 Brasília