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Mercado baixa estimativa de inflação em 2022 para 7,15% e projeta alta maior do PIB, diz Banco Central

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Os analistas do mercado financeiro reduziram a estimativa de inflação para 2022 de 7,30% para 7,15%. Esta foi a quinta queda seguida do indicador.

As informações foram colhidas na semana passada, em pesquisa com mais de 100 instituições financeiras, e divulgadas nesta segunda-feira (1º).

Inflação
Expectativa do mercado para o IPCA de 2022

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Fonte: Banco Central

A redução da estimativa de inflação coincide com o corte de impostos cobrados sobre itens essenciais, como combustíveis e energia elétrica. Além de serem produtos que, por si só, impactam a inflação, também afetam indiretamente os preços de outros itens.

A diminuição de impostos foi uma estratégia do governo e do Congresso para tentar segurar os preços neste ano eleitoral. No entanto, apesar de reduzirem a inflação em 2022, essas medidas pressionam os preços para 2023.

Mesmo com a queda, a estimativa de inflação do mercado segue acima da meta. Em 2022, a meta central de inflação é de 3,50% e será oficialmente cumprida se o índice oscilar entre 2% e 5%.

A meta da inflação é fixada pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN). Para atingir o alvo, o Banco Central eleva ou reduz a taxa básica de juros da economia, a Selic.

Para o próximo ano, a meta central de inflação foi fixada em 3,25% e será considerada formalmente cumprida se oscilar entre 1,75% e 4,75%. Mas, de acordo com o boletim do BC, a previsão dos analistas para 2023 passou de 5,30% para 5,33%.


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Produto Interno Bruto

O mercado financeiro também passou a prever uma alta maior do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em 2022, mas reduziu a expectativa de crescimento para o próximo ano.

A previsão dos economistas dos bancos é que a economia brasileira cresça 1,97% em 2022, contra 1,93% previsto anteriormente. Já para 2023, a previsão de alta alta passou de 0,49% para 0,40%.

O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país e serve para medir a evolução da economia.

Taxa de juros

O mercado financeiro manteve a expectativa para a taxa básica de juros da economia, a Selic, em 13,75% ao ano no fim de 2022.

Atualmente, a taxa Selic está em 13,25% ao ano. O Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do Banco Central, responsável por definir a taxa, sinalizou uma nova alta esta semana, para 13,5% ou 13,75%.

O Copom também vem sinalizando de que os juros vão se manter altos por um período mais prolongado.

Já para o fechamento de 2023, a expectativa do mercado para a taxa Selic avançou de 10,75% para 11% ao ano. Mesmo assim, o mercado financeiro segue estimando queda dos juros no ano que vem.

Outras estimativas

  • Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio para o fim de 2022 permaneceu em R$ 5,20. Para 2023, ficou estável também em R$ 5,20.
  • Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção caiu de US$ 68,50 bilhões para US$ 67,20 bilhões de resultado positivo em 2022. Para o ano que vem, a estimativa dos especialistas do mercado ficou estável em US$ 60 bilhões de superávit.
  • Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano recuou de US$ 57,85 bilhões para US$ 56,25 bilhões. Para 2023, a estimativa passou de US$ 60,75 bilhões para US$ 60,50 bilhões de ingresso.

Fonte G1 Brasília

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