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Mercado financeiro reduz estimativa de inflação para 4,53% em 2023

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Os economistas do mercado financeiro reduziram a expectativa de inflação em 2023, de 4,55% para 4,53%. Foi a terceira redução seguida do indicador.

A informação consta no relatório “Focus”, divulgado nesta segunda-feira (27) pelo Banco Central. O levantamento ouviu mais de 100 instituições financeiras, na semana passada, sobre as projeções para a economia.

Estimativa do mercado para a inflação de 2023

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Fonte: Banco Central

  • Com a queda, a estimativa dos analistas para a inflação de 2023 continuou abaixo do teto da meta definida pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN).
  • A meta central de inflação é de 3,25% neste ano, e será considerada formalmente cumprida se o índice oscilar entre 1,75% e 4,75% neste ano.

Se a projeção do mercado financeiro se confirmar, será interrompida uma sequência de dois anos de descumprimento da meta de inflação. Em 2021, o IPCA somou 10,06%. E, em 2022, a inflação somou 5,79%.

Para 2024, a estimativa de inflação ficou estável em 3,91% na última semana. No próximo ano, a meta de inflação é de 3% e será considerada cumprida se oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5%.

Para definir a taxa básica de juros e tentar conter a alta dos preços, o BC já está mirando, neste momento, na meta do ano que vem.

Quanto maior a inflação, menor é o poder de compra das pessoas, principalmente das que recebem salários menores. Isso porque os preços dos produtos aumentam, sem que o salário acompanhe esse crescimento.

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Produto Interno Bruto

Sobre o resultado do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) de 2023, o mercado financeiro baixou a projeção de crescimento de 2,85% para 2,84%.

O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país. O indicador serve para medir a evolução da economia.

Já para 2024, a previsão de crescimento da economia do mercado financeiro permaneceu inalterada em 1,50%.

Taxa de juros

Os economistas do mercado financeiro mantiveram as estimativas para a taxa básica de juros da economia brasileira para o final deste ano e de 2024.

Outras estimativas

Veja abaixo outras estimativas do mercado financeiro, segundo o BC:

  • Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio para o fim de 2023 ficou estável em R$ 5. Para o fim de 2024, a estimativa permaneceu em R$ 5,05.
  • Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção subiu de R$ 77 bilhões para US$ 83 bilhões de superávit em 2023. Para 2024, a expectativa para o saldo positivo avançou de US$ 63,7 bilhões para US$ 69 bilhões.
  • Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano caiu de US$ 64,7 bilhões para US$ 62,6 bilhões de ingresso. Para 2024, a estimativa de ingresso permaneceu em US$ 70 bilhões.

VÍDEOS: notícias de economia

Fonte G1 Brasília

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