Os economistas do mercado financeiro reduziram a expectativa de inflação para este ano e para 2024.
As informações constam no relatório “Focus”, divulgado nesta terça-feira (26) pelo Banco Central. O levantamento ouviu mais de 100 instituições financeiras, na semana passada, sobre as projeções para a economia.
Para 2023, a expectativa do mercado para a inflação oficial recuou de 4,49% para 4,46%. Foi a terceira queda seguida do indicador.
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- Com a baixa, a estimativa dos analistas para a inflação de 2023 se mantém abaixo do teto da meta definida pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN).
- A meta central de inflação é de 3,25% neste ano, e será considerada formalmente cumprida se o índice oscilar entre 1,75% e 4,75% neste ano.
Se a projeção do mercado financeiro se confirmar, será interrompida uma sequência de dois anos de descumprimento da meta de inflação. Em 2021, o IPCA somou 10,06%. E, em 2022, a inflação somou 5,79%.
- Especial g1: o que é inflação
- Entenda: como a inflação mexe no seu bolso
Para 2024, a estimativa de inflação caiu de 3,93% para 3,91% na última semana. No próximo ano, a meta de inflação é de 3% e será considerada cumprida se oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5%.
Para definir a taxa básica de juros e tentar conter a alta dos preços, o BC já está mirando, neste momento, na meta do ano que vem, e também em 12 meses até o início de 2025.
Quanto maior a inflação, menor é o poder de compra das pessoas, principalmente das que recebem salários menores. Isso porque os preços dos produtos aumentam, sem que o salário acompanhe esse crescimento.
Produto Interno Bruto
Sobre o resultado do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) de 2023, o mercado financeiro manteve a projeção de crescimento em 2,92%.
O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país. O indicador serve para medir a evolução da economia.
Já para 2024, a previsão de crescimento da economia do mercado financeiro subiu de 1,51% para 1,52%.
Taxa de juros
Os economistas do mercado financeiro mantiveram as estimativas para a taxa básica de juros da economia brasileira para o final deste ano e de 2024.
- Atualmente, a taxa Selic está em 11,75% ao ano, após quatro reduções seguidas promovidas pelo Banco Central.
- Para o fechamento de 2024, a projeção do mercado para o juro básico da economia recuou de 9,25% para 9% ao ano.
- Isso quer dizer que o mercado passou a estimar um corte maior dos juros em 2024.
Outras estimativas
Veja abaixo outras estimativas do mercado financeiro, segundo o BC:
- Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio para o fim de 2023 recuou de R$ 4,93 para R$ 4,90. Para o fim de 2024, a estimativa ficou estável em R$ 5.
- Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção subiu de R$ 79,8 bilhões para US$ 81,4 bilhões de superávit em 2023. Para 2024, a expectativa para o saldo positivo avançou de US$ 69 bilhões para US$ 71 bilhões.
- Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano recuou de US$ 60,3 bilhões para US$ 60 bilhões de ingresso. Para 2024, a estimativa de ingresso caiu de US$ 70 bilhões para US$ 65 bilhões.
VÍDEOS: notícias de economia
Fonte G1 Brasília