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Orçamento 2025: governo estima que arrecadação atingirá maior nível em 15 anos

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O governo federal estima que a arrecadação do governo atingirá, em 2025, o maior patamar em 15 anos ? ou seja, desde o fim do segundo mandato do presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, em 2010.

A informação consta na proposta de orçamento do ano que vem, enviado ao Congresso Nacional na semana passada.

A comparação, considerada mais apropriada por economistas, leva em conta a receita corrente líquida na proporção com o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB).

A receita líquida é o que sobra para o governo da arrecadação após as transferências a estados e municípios.

De acordo com a projeção incluída na proposta do Orçamento de 2024, já enviada pelo Ministério da Fazenda ao Congresso, as receitas líquidas deverão atingir 19% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em 2025.

Receita líquida ano a ano
Em percentual (%) do PIB, após a transferência a estados e municípios

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Fonte: Tesouro Nacional e Ministério do Planejamento

  • A receita líquida projetada no orçamento de 2025 é a segunda maior da série histórica do Tesouro, que tem início em 1997.
  • Fica abaixo apenas do recorde registrado em 2010 ? quando somou 20,2% do PIB.
  • Esse patamar está bem acima da média da série histórica, entre 1997 e 2023, de 17,7% do PIB.

Alta da arrecadação

O aumento da arrecadação no terceiro mandato do presidente Lula aconteceu após uma série de medidas para incremento das receitas.

Veja abaixo as medidas já adotadas

Confira novas propostas pelo Congresso, com aval do governo, para compensar a desoneração da folha (ainda não aprovadas)

Medidas anunciadas nas últimas semanas, ainda não aprovadas

Medidas que a área econômica indicou que deve enviar

Além de medidas legislativas, o governo Lula também tem contado com o crescimento da economia brasileira para impulsionar a arrecadação. Com maior nível de atividade, sobe também a arrecadação de tributos.

Diante da economia forte e das medidas propostas pelo governo, e aprovadas pelo Legislativo, a arrecadação federal vem mostrando força e batendo recordes sucessivos neste ano. Na parcial até julho, somou R$ 1,55 trilhão (marca histórica).

O secretário do Tesouro Nacional, Rogério Ceron, afirmou que a arrecadação de agosto, ainda não divulgada oficialmente, também registrou bom desempenho.

“Estamos aí com uma recuperação muito forte na arrecadação. Em agosto, tivemos novamente um excelente resultado na arrecadação. Obviamente, ainda não é público não posso dizer os números”, declarou ao g1.

Posição do governo

De acordo com Rogério Ceron, do Tesouro Nacional, o bom resultado do PIB no segundo trimestre deste ano tende a elevar a projeção de crescimento da economia em 2025, atualmente em 2,6%, o que implicaria na queda da estimativa atual da despesa com o PIB – atualmente em 19%.

Mesmo assim, ele defendeu o processo de elevação de tributos, chamado pela área econômica de “recomposição de receitas”. “É necessário, tem de ser recomposto, é um governo tem como a agenda recomposição de políticas sociais, o que exigiu ali uma recuperação do orçamento”, declarou ao g1.

Segundo ele, a recomposição de arrecadação visa equilibrar as contas públicas, e não aumentar o tamanho do Estado.

Ceron lembrou que as despesas totais estão estimadas em 19,3% do PIB para 2025 e que, limitadas pelo arcabouço fiscal (que traz um teto para seu crescimento), elas devem ficar próximas disso (ou até abaixo) nos próximos anos.

  • Entre 2015 e 2019, as despesas totais ficaram, na média, em 19,5% do PIB.
  • A média da série histórica, que começa em 1997, de 17,5% do PIB.

Despesas totais do governo
Em percentual (%) do PIB

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Fonte: Tesouro Nacional e Ministério do Planejamento

“Esse ajuste da receita busca garantir o equilíbrio fiscal. Não que ele está sendo necessário para suportar, o que muitas vezes se diz por aí, um excesso de gastos ou um incremento substancial dessa despesa pública”, afirmou o secretário do Tesouro, Rogério Ceron.

Apesar de todas as medidas anunciadas nas últimas semanas de incremento da arrecadação, como alta na CSLL, nos juros sobre capital próprio, da taxação de big techs e demais multinacionais, o secretário afirmou que o processamento e indicação de novas propostas de alta de impostos estão próximos do fim.

“O processo de recuperação fiscal para atingir esse equilíbrio, nós estamos próximos dele. Não exige um grande passo para a gente atingir, em termos de esforço, como proporção do PIB. Estou falando de ajustes é menores agora para chegar até chegar lá (…) A gente está já está se aproximando do equilíbrio. Então, eu acho que não está chegando nesse ponto. Então, não vai exigir tanto esse avanço [de novas medidas de arrecadação]”, disse o secretário do Tesouro Nacional.

Críticas de economistas

Para eles, a equipe econômica também tem de se concentra no outro pilar que possibilitará uma melhora da contas públicas ? o corte de gastos.

Entre as propostas, estão:

  • Redução de gastos com servidores, por meio de uma reforma administrativa
  • Contenção de gastos previdenciários, por meio de uma nova reforma da Previdência
  • Reforma de gastos sociais
  • Mudanças ou o fim do abono salarial
  • Revisão de vinculações, como o piso da saúde e educação à receita, e dos benefícios previdenciários e assistenciais ao salário mínimo

“A agenda imperativa de ajuste pelo lado do gasto é bastante conhecida, falta vontade e convicção [do governo] em conciliar responsabilidade fiscal e social”, afirmou o economista Gabriel Leal de Barros, da ARX Investimentos.

A agenda de cortes de gastos também buscaria evitar o impacto em políticas públicas. O temor, já informado pelo g1, é que o espaço para gastos livres do governo acabe nos próximos anos.

Até o momento, a equipe econômica tem atuado, principalmente, na revisão dos cadastros do Bolsa Família, do Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC), do Cadastro Nacional de Informações Sociais (CNIS) e do auxílio-doença, entre outros. O objetivo é limitar o pagamento dos benefícios a quem tem direito, diminuindo as fraudes.

Segundo analistas, entretanto, essa revisão têm fôlego curto.

“Medidas de combate à fraudes, aumento da fiscalização são bem-vindas. Mas isso tem fôlego curto. Resolve um ano, dois anos. Não é algo mais persistente, permanente. A gente vai ter que em algum momento, acho que vai ficar para um próximo governo, falar de ‘revincular’. Ter vinculações mais compatíveis com o equilíbrio fiscal, e que façam sentido para as políticas públicas”, declarou Bráulio Borges, pesquisador do do FGV Ibre, ao g1.

Fonte G1 Brasília

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