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O Banco Central (BC) informou nesta segunda-feira (17) que o Índice de Atividade Econômica (IBC-Br), considerado a “prévia” do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), registrou queda de 0,9% no terceiro trimestre deste ano.
O resultado pelo BC foi calculado após ajuste sazonal ? uma espécie de “compensação” para comparar períodos diferentes. A comparação foi feita com o segundo trimestre de 2025.
- O dado divulgado nesta segunda-feira pelo Banco Central mostra a primeira contração da economia trimestral em dois anos.
- A última queda do indicador de atividade do BC foi no terceiro trimestre de 2023, quando foi registrado um recuo de 0,5%.
- A primeira queda do índice de atividade econômica da autoridade monetária acontece em meio a uma puxada na taxa de juros para conter a inflação.
- Atualmente, a Selic está em 15% ao ao, o maior nível em quase dois anos. Analistas projetam início do ciclo de queda do juro em janeiro de 2026.
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Os dados do BC uma contração da atividade nos três setores da economia no terceiro trimestre deste ano, sendo o maior deles na agropecuária.
Veja abaixo o desempenho setor por setor:
- Agropecuária: – 4,5%
- Indústria: -1%
- Serviços: -0,3%
O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país e serve para medir a evolução da economia. O resultado oficial do período, medido pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), será divulgado em 4 de dezembro.
Se o PIB cresce, significa que a economia vai bem e produz mais. Se o PIB cai, quer dizer que a economia está encolhendo. Ou seja, o consumo e o investimento total é menor. Entretanto, nem sempre crescimento do PIB equivale a bem-estar social.
Desaceleração da atividade
??A desaceleração da atividade econômica é algo buscado pelo Banco Central para tentar conter as pressões inflacionárias e trazer as projeções para a meta de 3% ao ano.
Para isso, o seu principal instrumento é a taxa básica de juros. Atualmente, a Selic está em 15% ao ano ? o maior patamar em quase 20 anos.
“Endossando o cenário esperado do Comitê até aqui, há uma moderação gradual da atividade em curso, certa diminuição da inflação corrente e alguma redução nas expectativas de inflação”, informou o Banco Central, na semana passada, por meio da ata do Copom.
??Na ata da última reunião do Copom, o BC também informou que o chamado “hiato do produto” segue positivo. Isso quer dizer que a economia continua operando acima do seu potencial de crescimento sem pressionar a inflação.
Mês de setembro
De acordo com o Banco Central, em setembro deste ano, na comparação com o mês anterior, o IBC-Br registrou uma contração de 0,2%.
- Com isso, houve piora na comparação com agosto, quando o indicador teve um crescimento de 0,4%.
- Na comparação com setembro de 2024, a chamada prévia do PIB do BC teve alta de 2% (sem ajuste sazonal).
Ainda segundo o Banco Central, o IBC-Br apresentou crescimento de 2,6% na comparação com os nove primeiros meses de 2024.
E, em 12 meses até setembro, a expansão foi de 3%. Nesses casos, o índice foi calculado sem ajuste sazonal.
PIB X IBC-Br
Os resultados do IBC-Br são considerados a “prévia do PIB”. Porém, o cálculo do Banco Central é diferente do cálculo do IBGE.
O indicador do BC incorpora estimativas para a agropecuária, a indústria e o setor de serviços, além dos impostos, mas não considera o lado da demanda (incorporado no cálculo do PIB do IBGE).
O IBC-Br é uma das ferramentas usadas pelo BC para definir a taxa básica de juros do país. Com o maior crescimento da economia, por exemplo, pode haver mais pressão inflacionária, o que contribuiria para conter a queda dos juros.
Fonte G1 Brasília
