O senador eleito Wellington Dias (PT-PI), coordenador do núcleo de Orçamento da equipe de transição de governo, informou ao g1 que a equipe do presidente eleito Lula (PT) irá propor salário mínimo de R$ 1.320,00 no ano que vem.
Se aprovado pelo Congresso Nacional, o novo valor ficará acima dos R$ 1.302,00 propostos pelo governo Jair Bolsonaro. O salário mínimo atual é de R$ 1.212,00.
Durante a campanha eleitoral, Lula disse que, se eleito, iria reajustar o salário mínimo acima da inflação. No governo Bolsonaro, o salário foi reajustado conforme a inflação, ou seja, sem aumento real.
Portanto, se confirmada e aprovada a proposta do governo eleito, o salário mínimo voltará a ter aumento real após três anos.
De acordo com o Departamento Intersindical de Estatística e Estudos Socioeconômicos (Dieese), o salário mínimo serve de referência para 56,7 milhões de pessoas no Brasil, das quais 24,2 milhões de beneficiários do Instituto Nacional do Seguro Social (INSS).
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Centrais sindicais e PEC da Transição
A decisão da equipe de transição de propor salário mínimo de R$ 1.320,00 em 2023 acontece após Lula ter recebido no Centro Cultural do Banco do Brasil (CCBB), em Brasília, representantes de centrais sindicais. O reajuste do salário mínimo foi um dos temas discutidos no encontro.
Junto com a manutenção do auxílio para a população carente em R$ 600 no próximo ano, o valor do salário mínimo do próximo ano é um dos temas prioritários da equipe de transição.
Para que a proposta de aumento do salário mínimo para R$ 1.320 seja implementada, porém, Wellington Dias afirmou ao g1 que é necessária a aprovação da proposta de emenda à Constituição conhecida como PEC da Transição.
Cada R$ 1 de aumento adicional no salário mínimo representa despesa adicional de R$ 370 milhões por ano – segundo cálculos do Ministério da Economia. Assim, se confirmados os R$ 18 a mais de aumento (na comparação entre as propostas de Bolsonaro e da equipe Lula) equivalem a R$ 6,66 bilhões em novas despesas em 2023.
Entre outros pontos, a proposta permite ao governo estourar o teto de gastos em R$ 198 bilhões no ano que vem para, por exemplo, pagar os R$ 600 mensais do Auxílio Brasil (que voltará a se chamar Bolsa Família).
O colunista do g1 Valdo Cruz informou que, para analistas do mercado financeiro, o teto não pode ser estourado em mais de R$ 140 bilhões no ano que vem. Caso contrário, a PEC pode elevar a dívida pública e gerar incertezas sobre as contas públicas e sobre a economia.
Além disso, outra ala de analistas avalia que a PEC precisa ser mais “enxuta” porque o estouro do teto não pode ultrapassar R$ 96 bilhões (leia detalhes mais abaixo).
Paralelamente às negociações da PEC da Transição, o senador Tasso Jereissati (PSDB-CE) apresentou uma proposta que prevê elevar o teto de gastos em R$ 80 bilhões em 2023 e, assim, permitir a manutenção do pagamento de R$ 600 do Auxílio Brasil no ano que vem e abrir e espaço para recompor o Orçamento.
Economistas temem desequilíbrio fiscal
O mercado financeiro teme alta da dívida pública e pede que o aumento de gastos por meio da PEC da transição sejam compensados.
Analistas argumentam que, em 76,8% do PIB em outubro, ou R$ 7,3 trilhões, o patamar já está elevado na comparação com os países emergentes ? cuja média é de cerca de 65% para o endividamento.
Neste mês, o presidente do Banco Central, Roberto Campos Neto, indicado por Jair Bolsonaro para comandar a instituição até 2024, alertou que é preciso ter um olhar para os gastos sociais, mas também avaliou que o equilíbrio fiscal (das contas) não pode ser negligenciado.
Campos Neto argumenta que mais gastos geram maior inflação, o que obriga o BC a ter uma política de juros diferente (subindo mais a taxa Selic, ou mantendo-a elevada por mais tempo), com impacto no crescimento, nos investimentos e no emprego.
“A gente volta para um mundo de incerteza, onde a expectativa de inflação sobe, você desorganiza o setor produtivo, em termos de investimentos e, no final, quem sofre mais com isso é justamente a população que você quer ajudar, porque você machuca a geração de empregos”, declarou Campos Neto, na ocasião.
Recentemente, Campos Neto afirmou que, no caso de a situação das contas públicas piorar, o BC pode reagir. Isso significa que a instituição pode elevar os juros da economia, instrumento que o Banco Central tem para controlar efeitos adversos de uma expansão fiscal, como o aumento da inflação.
E acrescentou que, por conta da expansão de gastos indicada por meio da PEC da transição, economistas do mercado financeiro já acreditam que o Banco Central terá de subir o juro básico da economia, atualmente em 13,75% ao ano (maior nível em seis anos), nos próximos seis meses.
VÍDEOS: notícias sobre política
Fonte G1 Brasília