REDES SOCIAIS

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Mercado financeiro passa a prever crescimento da economia acima de 2% em 2024, vê inflação mais alta e estima queda menor nos juros

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Os analistas do mercado financeiro elevaram a projeção para o crescimento da economia brasileira neste ano — que ultrapassou a marca dos 2%.

Eles também passaram a projetar mais inflação, um queda menor da taxa básica de juros nos próximos anos e elevaram as expectativas para a o dólar no fim de 2024 e de 2025.

As informações constam no relatório “Focus”, divulgado nesta terça-feira (23) pelo Banco Central. O levantamento ouviu mais de 100 instituições financeiras, na semana passada, sobre as projeções para a economia.

A mudança nas expectativas do mercado financeiro ocorre após o governo confirmar a proposta de reduzir as metas para o saldo positivo nas contas públicas neste e nos próximos anos. A meta, que era de superávit já em 2025, passou a ser de déficit zero.

Se aprovada a proposta, a equipe econômica ganhará um espaço de cerca de R$ 160 bilhões para novos gastos em 2024 e 2025.

Após as alterações, o presidente do Banco Central, Roberto Campos Neto, já avisou na última semana que o trabalho da instituição para conter a inflação ficou “custoso e difícil” — indicando que o ritmo antes esperado de queda dos juros pode mudar.

Produto Interno Bruto

Para o crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em 2024, a projeção do mercado subiu de de 1,95% para 2,02%. Foi a décima alta seguida no indicador.

O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país. O indicador serve para medir a evolução da economia.

  • Já para 2025, a previsão de alta do PIB do mercado financeiro ficou estável em 2%.
  • Em 2023, o PIB do Brasil cresceu 2,9%, segundo o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE).

Inflação

Para a inflação deste ano, os analistas dos bancos elevaram a expectativa de inflação de 3,71% para 3,73%.

Estimativa do mercado financeiro para a inflação de 2024
Projeções para o IPCA, o índice oficial

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Fonte: Banco Central

Com isso, a expectativa dos analistas para a inflação de 2024 se mantém abaixo do teto da meta definida pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN).

A meta central de inflação é de 3% neste ano, e será considerada formalmente cumprida se o índice oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5% neste ano.

Para 2025, a estimativa de inflação avançou de 3,56% para 3,60% na última semana. No próximo ano, a meta de inflação é de 3% e será considerada cumprida se oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5%.

Para definir a taxa básica de juros e tentar conter a alta dos preços, o BC já está mirando, neste momento, na meta do ano que vem, e também em 12 meses até meados de 2025.

Quanto maior a inflação, menor é o poder de compra das pessoas, principalmente das que recebem salários menores. Isso porque os preços dos produtos aumentam, sem que o salário acompanhe esse crescimento.

Taxa de juros

Os economistas do mercado financeiro elevaram as estimativas para a taxa básica de juros da economia brasileira para o final deste ano e de 2025.

  • Para o fechamento de 2024, a projeção do mercado para o juro básico da economia subiu de 9,13% para 9,50% ao ano.
  • Para o fim de 2025, por sua vez, o mercado financeiro subiu a projeção de 8,5% para 9% ao ano.

Isso quer dizer que os economistas passaram a ver uma queda menor dos juros neste ano e em 2025.

Outras estimativas

Veja abaixo outras estimativas do mercado financeiro, segundo o BC:

  • Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio para o fim de 2024 subiu de R$ 4,97 para R$ 5. Para o fim de 2025, a estimativa continuou em R$ 5,05.
  • Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção subiu de US$ 79,8 bilhões para US$ 80 bilhões de superávit em 2024. Para 2025, a expectativa para o saldo positivo permaneceu em US$ 75 bilhões.
  • Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano subiu de US$ 67 bilhões para US$ 67,3 bilhões de ingresso. Para 2025, a estimativa de ingresso avançou de US$ 73,4 bilhões para US$ 73,5 bilhões.

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Fonte G1 Brasília

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