REDES SOCIAIS

28°C

Mercado financeiro projeta crescimento maior da economia em 2024

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Os economistas do mercado financeiro elevaram a projeção de crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) deste ano de 1,60% para 1,68%.

A informação consta no relatório “Focus”, divulgado nesta quinta-feira (22) pelo Banco Central. O levantamento ouviu mais de 100 instituições financeiras, na semana passada, sobre as projeções para a economia.

O PIB é a soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país. O indicador serve para medir a evolução da economia.

Já para 2025, a previsão de crescimento da economia do mercado financeiro ficou estável em 2%.

Inflação

Para o comportamento da inflação, os analistas da instituições financeiras baixaram, marginalmente, a expectativa para 2024 – que recuou de 3,82% para 3,81%.

Estimativa do mercado financeiro para a inflação de 2024
Projeções para o IPCA, o índice oficial

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Fonte: Banco Central

Com isso, a estimativa dos analistas para a inflação de 2024 se mantém abaixo do teto da meta definida pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN).

A meta central de inflação é de 3% neste ano, e será considerada formalmente cumprida se o índice oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5% neste ano.

Para 2025, a estimativa de inflação avançou de 3,51% para 3,52% na última semana. No próximo ano, a meta de inflação é de 3% e será considerada cumprida se oscilar entre 1,5% e 4,5%.

Para definir a taxa básica de juros e tentar conter a alta dos preços, o BC já está mirando, neste momento, na meta do ano que vem, e também em 12 meses até meados de 2025.

Quanto maior a inflação, menor é o poder de compra das pessoas, principalmente das que recebem salários menores. Isso porque os preços dos produtos aumentam, sem que o salário acompanhe esse crescimento.

Taxa de juros

Os economistas do mercado financeiro mantiveram as estimativas para a taxa básica de juros da economia brasileira para o final deste ano e de 2025.

Outras estimativas

Veja abaixo outras estimativas do mercado financeiro, segundo o BC:

  • Dólar: a projeção para a taxa de câmbio para o fim de 2024 subiu de R$ 4,92 para R$ 4,93. Para o fim de 2025, a estimativa continuou em R$ 5.
  • Balança comercial: para o saldo da balança comercial (resultado do total de exportações menos as importações), a projeção subiu de US$ 76,5 bilhões para US$ 80 bilhões de superávit em 2024. Para 2025, a expectativa para o saldo positivo ficou estável em US$ 70 bilhões.
  • Investimento estrangeiro: a previsão do relatório para a entrada de investimentos estrangeiros diretos no Brasil neste ano permaneceu em US$ 66,5 bilhões de ingresso. Para 2025, a estimativa de ingresso subiu de US$ 74,1 bilhões para US$ 75 bilhões.

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Fonte G1 Brasília

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