REDES SOCIAIS

18°C

Reunião do Copom nesta quarta-feira deve elevar juro básico pela 11ª vez consecutiva, prevê mercado

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O Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do Banco Central se reúne nesta quarta-feira (15) para definir a taxa básica de juros da economia.

A expectativa da maior parte dos economistas do mercado financeiro é que a Selic seja elevada em 0,5 ponto percentual, passando dos atuais 12,75% para 13,25% ao ano. A decisão sobre a Selic será anunciada após as 18h.

A evolução da taxa Selic
Desde 2017, em % ao ano

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Fonte: Banco Central

Se confirmado, este será o décimo primeiro aumento seguido do juro, o que levará a taxa ao maior patamar desde dezembro de 2016, quando estava em 13,75% ao ano.

O novo aumento no juro básico da economia é esperado pelo mercado financeiro com base em indicações do próprio Banco Central.

No encontro anterior do Copom, em abril, o BC informou que promoveria nova alta, mas em menor intensidade do que a alta anterior (de 1 ponto percentual).

Inflação em alta

O objetivo da alta no juro é tentar conter o aumento da inflação. O IPCA ? a inflação oficial do país ? ficou em 0,47% em maio, com desaceleração na comparação com o mês anterior. Mesmo assim, acumulou um aumento de 11,73% em doze meses.


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No mês passado, foram as passagens aéreas e os remédios que exerceram maior pressão sobre a taxa, enquanto alimentos importantes na mesa dos brasileiros ajudaram a contê-la.

Sistema de metas

Para calibrar o nível dos juros, o sistema adotado é o de metas de inflação. Quando a inflação está alta, o BC eleva a Selic. Quando as estimativas para a inflação estão em linha com as metas, o Banco Central reduz a Selic.

Em 2022, a meta central de inflação é de 3,5% e será oficialmente cumprida se o índice oscilar de 2% a 5%. O mercado financeiro e o BC, porém, já preveem a inflação de quase 8,89% em todo este ano. Se confirmado, será o segundo ano seguido de estouro da meta de inflação.

Neste momento, o BC já está ajustando a taxa Selic para atingir a meta de inflação do ano que vem, uma vez que as decisões sobre juros demoram de seis a 18 meses para terem impacto pleno na economia.

Para 2023, a meta de inflação foi fixada 3,25%, e será considerada formalmente cumprida se oscilar entre 1,75% e 4,75%.

Na semana retrasada, o mercado financeiro estimou que a inflação oficial somará 4,39%. A previsão, portanto, está acima da meta central, mas ainda dentro do intervalo de tolerância.

Consequências da alta dos juros

De acordo com especialistas, o aumento do juro básico da economia, para conter a inflação, tem vários reflexos na economia, entre os quais:

VÍDEOS: notícias de economia

Fonte G1 Brasília

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